How many fish are in the sea? The more you take, the less there will be next year. The same is true with oil, however fish can reproduce. Oil is finite. There is a peak, a point when where the available oil and the number of barrels produced meet in apex. Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.”

Even the most optimistic appraisal has us hitting peak oil in 2020. M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now calledHubbert peak theory, and its variants have described with reasonable accuracy the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries. It is highly probable that we have already hit peak oil.

“So what?”

Population and Oil

Population has grown exponentially with the advent of oil based industry. As mentioned in an earlier post, everything has the touch of oil in it now. Even my pilgrimage has oil as a major supporter from my nylon sleeping bag, bivy, and cart. My plastic water bottles, shoes, and tires all are derived from oil. But population benefits from oil by means of pesticides, fertilizers, and mass production. What happens when oil becomes too expensive to make it profitable?

“Oil and its companion natural gas together make up about 60% of humanity’s primary energy. In addition, the energy of oil has been leveraged through its use in the extraction and transport of coal as well as the construction and maintenance of hydro and nuclear generating facilities.  Oil is as the heart of humanity’s enormous energy economy as well as at the heart of its food supply.  The following conclusion seems reasonable: Humanity has quadrupled the Earth’s carrying capacity since 1900.”

Population and oil production

So when the oil goes…so will the population. When you have too many foxes, and not enough rabbits, the fox population starves until balance is achieved, or until foxes learn to be vegetarians.

Rather than learn to be stewards of the Earth, we go to war for oil to preserve our plastic way of life. Does it not strike anyone as odd that it seems we are working our way up the list and going to war with the greatest oil reserve countries?

Big Oil Producing Countries in 2008

1. Saudi Arabia … 11 million barrels per day (13.9% of estimated world total)

4. Iran … 4.2 million bpd (5.3%)

9. Venezuela … 2.8 million bpd (3.6%)

10. Kuwait … 2.7 million bpd (3.4%)

11. United Arab Emirates … 2.5 million barrels per day (3.2% of estimated world total)

13. Iraq … 2.11 million bpd (2.7%)

16. Libya … 1.7 million bpd (2.2%)

Hmmm…we are in Libya, Iraq, and have been in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait since the first desert storm. There has been a lot of saber rattling about Venezuela.  Now they are beating the war drums about Iran. Recently they showed an FBI agent that has been supposedly a “hostage” in Iran playing on the old sentiments left over from the last failed US take over. Now a US spy plane was downed there? Based upon US history with false flag events, it seems most likely that we will see a bombing in Israel, probably nuclear, that will be blamed on Iran. This will get the US into another patriotic frenzy and warrant yet another “justified war”.

I’m not a bible man, but there is a verse in Matthew: “But woe to those who are pregnant and to those who are nursing babies in those days!” When there isn’t enough food, how will you decide who lives? When we are each rationed who will get a woman’s portion? If the mother, then the child dies, if the child then the mother dies…which means the child will die anyway. What then is the solution?

Start saving seeds, grow your own food, and learn to love the land. We are a generation removed from the land. One hundred years ago people knew how to can, preserve, smoke, and dehydrate. They knew how to make things, we have lost our ability to fend for ourselves. What about transportation though? We have had the technology for some time, whether we choose to use it or not.

However, no survival is capable unless we learn compassion for each other and for the earth. As Einstein once said, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” Please do what you can to love others, despite what they have done to you. Be the love.